Standard Shocks in the OECD Interlink Model

Thomas Dalsgaard ; Christophe André ; Pete Richardson

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

关键词: macroeconometric model;    simulation;    forecasting;   

DOI  :  https://doi.org/10.1787/000706200171

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: OECD iLibrary

【 摘 要 】

One of the OECD Economic Department’s key vehicles for analysing effects and international spillovers of macroeconomic policy as well as assessing risks to the global outlook is the macroeconometric model, INTERLINK. In the context of the Department’s regular projection exercises the model performs a variety of functions. These include 1) contributing to the construction and co-ordination of individual country projections; 2) the production of globally consistent trade projections; and 3) simulations to explore the short- to medium-term consequences of alternative economic conditions and policy assumptions. This paper briefly describes the main features of the current version of INTERLINK and presents the results of a number of standard macroeconomic shocks. These simulation results reflect the combination of unadjusted model properties and the specific stylised policy assumptions made. In the course of more routine policy analysis with the model at the OECD, these are augmented by ...