Modelling Import Responsiveness for OECD Manufactures Trade

Mara Meacci ; David Turner

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

关键词: imports;    elasticities;    forecasting;    simulation;   

DOI  :  https://doi.org/10.1787/304013015652

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: OECD iLibrary

【 摘 要 】

The degree of integration and openness of OECD economies has consistently increased throughout most of the past three decades. By limiting the influence of non-economic factors, and reducing heterogeneity in economic systems, increased integration and openness enhance the emergence of common patterns of adjustment to economic shocks among countries. This paper focuses on the demand and price elasticity of manufacturing import volumes in OECD countries, examining if the long-run adjustment of the volume of manufacturing imports to demand and price shocks is similar across countries. The results indicate that the percentage long-run adjustment of manufacturing import volumes to a demand shock is similar across the majority of OECD countries. The adjustment of manufacturing import volumes to relative price shocks are more heterogeneous, although it is possible to identify clusters of countries showing similar responses. The estimated short and long-run demand elasticities are ...