The 2014 outbreak of the Ebola virusdisease in West Africa has taken a devastating human toll.Although the outbreak originated in rural Guinea, it has hithardest in Liberia and Sierra Leone, in part because it hasreached urban areas in these two countries, a factor thatdistinguishes this outbreak from previous episodeselsewhere. As of October 3, 2014, there had been 3,431recorded deaths out of 7,470 probable, suspected, orconfirmed cases of Ebola. This report informs the responseto the epidemic by presenting best-effort estimates of itsmacroeconomic and fiscal effects. Any such exercise isnecessarily highly imprecise due to limited data and manyuncertain factors, but it is still necessary in order toplan the economic assistance that must accompany theimmediate humanitarian response. The goal is to helpaffected countries to recover and return to the robusteconomic growth they had experienced until the onset of thiscrisis. This document presents the World Bank'spreliminary estimates of the economic impact of the Ebolaoutbreak in West Africa for 2014 (short term impact) and2015 (medium term impact). Section 2 presents a single setof 2014 estimates for Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea,based on available data on current economic activity as wellas assumptions about the short-term impact. It also presentscurrent data on the limited current impacts on othercountries in the region. Section 3 presents estimates forthe impact by the end of 2015 for Liberia, Guinea, andSierra Leone, as well as estimates for West Africa as awhole. Because the epidemic and the behavioral responses toit have more time to diverge over the course of 2015,Section 3 presents two scenarios for 2015, which vary in theoptimism of their assumptions regarding the epidemic and thesuccess of donor and government policy and efforts tocontrol it. The take-away messages from this analysis are alow Ebola scenario that corresponds to rapid containmentwithin the three most severely affected countries, and ahigh Ebola scenario corresponds to slower containment in thethree countries, with some broader regional contagion. Aswift policy reaction by the international community iscrucial. With potential the economic costs of the Ebolaepidemic being so high, very substantial containment andmitigation expenditures would be cost-effective, if theysuccessfully avert the worst epidemiological outcomes. Tomitigate the medium term economic impact of the outbreak,current efforts by many partners to strengthen the healthsystems and fill the fiscal gaps in the core three countriesare key priorities. Finally, this report does not take intoaccount the longer term impacts generated by mortality,failure to treat other health conditions due to aversionbehavior and lack of supply capacity, school closings anddropouts, and other shocks to livelihoods. It is trulyfocused on the short and medium-term inputs, over the next18 months.
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