The Risks and Macroeconomic Impactsof HIV/AIDS in the Middle East and North Africa : WhyWaiting to Intervene Can Be Costly

Robalino, David A. ; Jenkins, Carol ; El Maroufi, Karim

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ABSENTEEISM;    ACCESS TO CONDOMS;    AGED;    AVERAGE COSTS;    CONDOM USE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-2874
RP-ID  :  WPS2874

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The authors develop a model of optimalgrowth to assess the risks of an HIV/AIDS epidemic and theexpected economic impact in nine countries in the MiddleEast and North Africa region-Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran,Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, and Yemen. The modelincorporates an HIV/AIDS diffusion component based on twotransmission factors-sexual intercourse and exchange ofinfected needles among intravenous drug users. Given highlevels of uncertainty on the model parameters that determinethe dynamics of the epidemic and its economic impact, theauthors explore large regions of the parameter space. Theprevalence rates in year 2015 would be below 1 percent in 16percent of the cases, while they would be above 3 percent in50 percent of the cases. On average, GDP losses acrosscountries for 2000-2025 could approximate 35 percent oftoday's GDP. In all countries it is possible to observescenarios where losses surpass today's GDP. The authorsquantify the impact of expanding condom use and access toclean needles for intravenous drug users. They show thatthese interventions act as an insurance policy thatincreases social welfare. They also show that delayingaction for five years can cost, on average, the equivalentof six percentage points of today's GDP.