The Potential Demand for an HIV/AIDS Vaccine in Brazil

Dutilh Novaes, Hillegonda Maria ; Luna, Expedito J.A. ; Goldbaum, Moises ; Kilsztajn, Samuel ; Rossbach, Anaclaudia ; de la Roca Carvalheiro, Jose

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ACQUIRED IMMUNE DEFICIENCY SYNDROME;    ADHERENCE TO TREATMENT;    ADULT POPULATION;    AGED;    AIDS DEATHS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-2940
RP-ID  :  WPS2940

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This study assesses the potential demandby the public sector for a preventive HIV/AIDS vaccine inBrazil and the costs of alternative strategies for avaccination program. Brazil has a mature AIDS epidemic: thepercent of the population living with HIV or AIDS (about 0.6percent of adults) is not as high as in other severelyaffected developing countries, but infection rates inspecific risk groups in the population are very high and HIVhas spread beyond these groups into the general populationof low-risk individuals. Preventive HIV/AIDS vaccines arestill in the testing stage. The characteristics of the firstvaccines developed, in terms of their efficacy, duration ofeffectiveness, ease of administration, and price, are stillunknown. But the potential benefits of such a vaccine inBrazil would be high. The study reviews the cost and impactof HIV/AIDS in Brazil, in terms of disease and economicburden, as a proxy for the benefits of an HIV/AIDS vaccine.The epidemiology of AIDS and Brazil's experience withimmunization coverage with other vaccines are used to assessthe number of vaccines, delivery strategies, and possiblecosts of an HIV/AIDS immunization program in Brazil,assuming the availability of a 100 percent effective AIDSvaccine that lasts a lifetime under different pricing anddosing assumptions. A low-cost, highly effective vaccinewould likely be affordable to an upper-middle-income countrylike Brazil and yield large benefits from a policy ofuniversal, publicly subsidized immunization. But if pricesare higher and the impact less favorable, the costs andeffects would have to be compared with other AIDS preventionprograms or other health interventions. Both political andeconomic considerations will likely figure into publicpolicy on HIV/AIDS vaccination, when such a vaccine is developed.