Import Protection, Business Cycles,and Exchange Rates : Evidence from the Great Recession

Bown, Chad P. ; Crowley, Meredith A.

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: AGREEMENT ON SAFEGUARDS;    ANNUAL IMPORTS;    ANTIDUMPING;    ANTIDUMPING CASES;    ANTIDUMPING DUTIES;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6038
RP-ID  :  WPS6038

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This research estimates the impact ofmacroeconomic fluctuations on import protection policiesover 1988:Q1-2010:Q4 for the United States, European Union,and three other industrialized economies. First, estimateson a pre-Great Recession sample provide evidence of threekey relationships for the US and EU. Increases in domesticunemployment rates and real appreciations in bilateralexchange rates led to substantial increases in antidumpingand related forms of import protection. Furthermore,economies historically imposed these bilateral importrestrictions on trading partners going through their ownperiods of weak economic growth. Second, estimates from thepre-Great Recession model predict a major trade policyresponse during 2008:Q4-2010:Q4, given the realizedmacroeconomic shocks. New US and EU trade barriers wereprojected to cover up to an additional 15 percentage pointsof nonoil imports, well above the baseline level of 2-3percent of import coverage immediately preceding the crisis.Third, re-estimating the model on data from the GreatRecession period illustrates why the realized trade policyresponse differed from model predictions based on historicaldata. While exchange rate movements played an important rolein limiting new import protection, the US and EU also"switched" from their historical behavior duringthe Great Recession and shifted new import protection towardtrading partners experiencing economic growth and away fromthose that were contracting.