The Impact of Climate Change on Livestock Management in Africa : A Structural Ricardian Analysis

Seo, Sungno Niggol ; Mendelsohn, Robert

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: AGRICULTURAL LAND;    AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT;    ANIMAL;    ANIMAL HUSBANDRY;    ANIMAL PRODUCTS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4279
RP-ID  :  WPS4279

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper develops the structuralRicardian method, a new approach to modeling agriculturalperformance using cross-sectional evidence, and uses themethod to study animal husbandry in Africa. The model isintended to estimate the structure beneath Ricardian resultsin order to understand how farmers change their behavior inresponse to climate. A survey of over 5,000 livestockfarmers in 10 countries reveals that the selection ofspecies, the net income per animal, and the number ofanimals are all highly dependent on climate. As climatewarms, net income across all animals will fall, especiallyacross beef cattle. The fall in net income causes Africanfarmers to reduce the number of animals on their farms. Thefall in relative revenues also causes them to shift awayfrom beef cattle and toward sheep and goats. All farmerswill lose income but the most vulnerable farms are largeAfrican farms that currently specialize in beef cattle.Small livestock and large livestock farms respond toclimates differently. Small farms are diversified, relyingon dairy cattle, goats, sheep, and chickens. Large farmsspecialize in dairy and beef cattle. Estimating a separatemultinomial logit selection model for small and large farmsreveals that the two types of farm choose speciesdifferently and specifically have different climate responsefunctions. The regressions of the number of animals alsoreveal that large farms are more responsive to climate. Theresults indicate that warming will be harmful to commerciallivestock owners, especially cattle owners. Owners ofcommercial livestock farms have few alternatives either incrops or other animal species. In contrast, small livestockfarms are better able to adapt to warming or precipitationincreases by switching to heat tolerant animals or crops.Livestock operations will be a safety valve for smallfarmers if warming or drought causes their crops to fail.