Climate Change Impacts on Animal Husbandry in Africa : A Ricardian Analysis

Seo, Sungno Niggol ; Mendelsohn, Robert

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: AGRICULTURAL LAND;    AGRICULTURE;    ANIMAL;    ANIMAL DISEASES;    ANIMAL HUSBANDRY;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4261
RP-ID  :  WPS4261

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper analyzes the impact ofclimate change on animal husbandry in Africa. It regressesthe net revenue from raising animals in small and largefarms across Africa on climate, soil, and other controlvariables to test the climate sensitivity of livestock. Thestudy is based on a survey of over 9,000 farmers across 11countries conducted by the World Bank and the GlobalEnvironment Facility. From this dataset, 5,400 farms werefound to rely on livestock. The paper develops models totest whether the climate coefficients of small and largefarms are similar. It turns out that small farms tend to bemore labor intensive, rely on native stocks, and have fewanimals. Large farms tend to be more commercial operations,with much larger stocks and more modern approaches. Theanalysis finds that warming is good for small farms becausethey can substitute animals that are heat tolerant. Largefarms, by contrast, are more dependent on cattle, which arenot heat tolerant. The wetter scenarios are likely to beharmful to grazing animals because greater rainfall impliesa shift from grasslands to forests, an increase in harmfuldisease vectors, and a shift from livestock to crops.Overall, because large farms dominate the sector, Africanlivestock net revenues are expected to fall. However, iffuture climates turn out to be dry, livestock net revenuewill increase. At least against the risk of dryness,livestock offer a good substitute for crops.