Differential Adaptation Strategies by Agro-Ecological Zones in African Livestock Management

Seo, S. Niggol ; Mendelsohn, Robert ; Dinar, Ariel ; Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ANATOMY;    ANIMAL;    ANIMAL DISEASES;    ANIMAL HUSBANDRY;    ANIMAL SPECIES;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4601
RP-ID  :  WPS4601

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper examines how farmers haveadapted their livestock operation to the current climate ineach agro-ecological zone in Africa. The authors examine howclimate has affected the farmer's choice to raiselivestock or not and the choice of animal species. Tomeasure adaptation, the analysis regresses the farmer'schoice on climate, soil, water flow, and socio-economicvariables. The findings show that climate does in factaffect the farmer's decision about whether to raiselivestock and the species. The paper also simulates howfuture climates may alter these decisions using forecastsfrom climate models and the estimated model. With a hot dryscenario, livestock ownership will increase slightly acrossall of Africa, but especially in West Africa and highelevation agro-ecological zones. Dairy cattle will decreasein semi-arid regions, sheep will increase in the lowlands,and chickens will increase at high elevations. With a mildand wet scenario, however, livestock adoption will falldramatically in lowland and high latitude moistagro-ecological zones. Beef cattle will increase and sheepwill fall in dry zones, dairy cattle will fall precipitouslyand goats will rise in moist zones, and chickens willincrease at high elevations but fall at mid elevations.Livestock adaptations depend on the climate scenario andwill vary across the landscape. Agro-ecological zones are auseful way to capture how these changes differ from place to place.