Growth, Inequality, and SimulatedPoverty Paths for Tanzania, 1992-2002

Demombynes, Gabriel ; Hoogeveen, Johannes G.

World Bank, Washington, D.C.

关键词: AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT;    AGRICULTURE;    BASE YEAR;    CONSUMPTION LEVELS;    ECONOMIC GROWTH;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-3432
RP-ID  :  WPS3432

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Although Tanzania experienced relativelyrapid growth in per capita GDP in the 1995 2001 period,household budget survey (HBS) data show only a modest andstatistically insignificant decline in poverty between 1992and 2001. To assess the likely trajectory of poverty ratesover the course of the period, changes in poverty aresimulated using unit-record HBS data and national accountsgrowth rates under varying assumptions for growth rates andinequality changes. To this end the projection approach ofDatt and Walker (2002) is used along with an extension thatis better suited to taking into account distributionalchanges observed between the two household surveys. Thesimulations suggest that following increases in povertyduring the economic slowdown of the early 1990s, recentgrowth in Tanzania has brought a decline in poverty,particularly in urban areas. Unless recent growth issustained, the country will not meet its 2015 MillenniumDevelopment Goal (MDG). Poverty reduction is on track inurban areas, but reaching the MDG target for bringing downpoverty in rural areas, where most Tanzanians live, requiressustaining high growth in rural output per capita.