Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Surprising Export Performance : Back to the Past in a New Veil but Will It Last?

Kaminski, Bartlomiej ; Ng, Francis

关键词: AGRICULTURAL EQUIPMENT;    AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS;    AGRICULTURE;    APPAREL;    BASE YEAR;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-5187
RP-ID  :  WPS5187

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Bosnia and Herzegovina's industrialrestructuring, as seen through the lenses of foreign tradeperformance and its sustainability, has taken off. Bosniaand Herzegovina s exports have displayed strong dynamicsoutstripping the pace of growth of exports in almost eachyear over 1997-2007 combined with the shift to higher valueadded exportables. Although its performance during theperiod 1996-2000 following the end of war in late 1995 wasnot surprising, given relatively low foreign directinvestment inflows and weaknesses in the investment climate,its subsequent export performance has come as a surprise.Industrial restructuring, as revealed in the pattern ofexports, consisted in rebuilding and modernizing thepre-independence industrial base built around wood products,metalworking, clothing, and automotive products. Althoughexports still remain relatively low in terms of both percapita and gross domestic product in comparison with otherBalkan economies, there has been significant change in theircomposition, indicating a growing presence of more processedmanufactures and the participation of local firms in globalnetworks of production and distribution, mostly asindependent suppliers. Firms with foreign participation havebeen one of the levers of export upgrading and expansion.The dominance of joint ventures as a mode of entry offoreign capital is worrisome for two reasons: first,domestic firms may not have access to the most recenttechnologies and knowhow; and second, it is alwaysindicative of weaknesses of a domestic economic regime. Thisalso raises concerns about the future sustainability ofexport performance.