A GEM for Streamlined Dynamic CGE Analysis : Structure, Interface, Data, and Macro Application

Cicowiez, Martin ; Lofgren, Hans

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM;    CGE MODEL;    FISCAL POLICY;    TRADE POLICY;    SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRICES;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-8272
RP-ID  :  WPS8272

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper provides an overview, macroapplication, and detailed documentation of GEM-Core, adynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model designedfor medium- and long-run policy analysis. GEM stands forGeneral Equilibrium Model. GEM-Core can address the issuesthat typically are relevant for CGE analysis for developingcountries, including fiscal space (with its spending, tax,and foreign aid aspects), public investment, social safetynets, trade, jobs, demography, poverty, and inequality. Themodel is a template model in the sense that, given anappropriately formatted database, applications for differentcountries can quickly be developed. The data needed formacro applications are very limited, making it possible toapply the model on short notice to virtually any country,including fragile and low-income countries. GEM-Core comeswith a user-friendly Excel-based interface through which theanalyst may choose between alternative country databasesand, for the selected database, do the analysis (define andanalyze simulations, including adjustment of selected dataand assumptions). The interface lowers entry barriers to CGEmodeling and provides a platform around which training maybe organized, making it possible to focus courses oneconomics instead of computer programming.