Actual and Potential Trade Agreements in the Asia-Pacific : Estimated Effects

Ferrantino, Michael J. ; Maliszewska, Maryla ; Taran, Svitlana

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: CGE MODEL;    TRADE AGREEMENTS;    TRADE POLICY;    REGIONAL INTEGRATION;    FREE TRADE AREA;   

RP-ID  :  147058

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper assesses and compareseconomic impacts of four actual and potential free tradeagreements in the Asia-Pacific Region; Comprehensive andProgressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP,sometimes also called TPP-11), the original Trans PacificPartnership (TPP-12), the Regional Comprehensive EconomicPartnership (RCEP), and the Free Trade Area of theAsia-Pacific (FTAAP). FTAs with a larger scale and widermembership are expected to produce higher aggregate gains interms of increased GDP and trade flows. U.S. withdrawal fromTPP-12 reduced estimated GDP gains for the TPP-11 countriesby about half. For countries belonging to CPTPP and alsonegotiating RCEP, the potential gains from an agreement withboth China and Korea are substantial, but not as large as ifthe United States were to re-join TPP-12. On a sectoralbasis, significant structural shifts are observed for suchsectors as food processing, wearing apparel, textiles, andtransport equipment.