The Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity : An Assessment of Alternative Scenarios

Roson, Roberto ; Damania, Richard

Elsevier

关键词: WATER;    ECONOMIC GROWTH;    COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM;    CGE MODEL;    VIRTUAL WATER TRADE;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jpolmod.2017.10.003
RP-ID  :  123236

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

In this paper we consider some of the economic implications of climate change scenarios as described in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). By comparing potential water demand with estimates of (sustainable) water availability in different regions, we identify regions that are likely to be constrained in their future economic growth potential by the scarcity of water resources. We assess the macroeconomic impact of water scarcity under alternative allocation rules finding that, by assigning more water to sectors in which it has a higher value, shifting production to less water intensive sectors, and importing more water intensive goods, constrained regions can effectively neutralize these water related climate risks and adapt to a changing water environment. However, this adaptation effort is likely to imply some radical changes in water management policies.