Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity

Roson, Roberto

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: WATER;    ECONOMIC GROWTH;    COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM;    VIRTUAL WATER;    SCARCITY;   

RP-ID  :  W16006

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

In this paper we consider some of theeconomic implications of climate change scenarios asdescribed in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Bycomparing potential water demand with estimates of(sustainable) water availability in different regions, weidentify regions that are likely to be constrained in theirfuture economic growth potential by the scarcity of waterresources. We assess the macroeconomic impact of waterscarcity under alternative allocation rules finding that, byassigning more water to sectors in which it has a highervalue, shifting production to less water intensive sectors,and importing more water intensive goods, constrainedregions can effectively neutralize these water relatedclimate risks and adapt to a changing water environment.However, this adaptation effort is likely to imply someradical changes in water management policies.