The Potential Impact of COVID-19 on GDP and Trade : A Preliminary Assessment

Maliszewska, Maryla ; Mattoo, Aaditya ; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: COVID-19;    CORONOAVIRUS;    INTERNATIONAL TRADE;    ECONOMIC GROWTH;    CGE MODEL;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-9211
RP-ID  :  WPS9211

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The virus that triggered a localizedshock in China is now delivering a significant global shock.This study simulates the potential impact of COVID-19 ongross domestic product and trade, using a standard globalcomputable general equilibrium model. It models the shock asunderutilization of labor and capital, an increase ininternational trade costs, a drop in travel services, and aredirection of demand away from activities that requireproximity between people. A baseline global pandemicscenario sees gross domestic product fall by 2 percent belowthe benchmark for the world, 2.5 percent for developingcountries, and 1.8 percent for industrial countries. Thedeclines are nearly 4 percent below the benchmark for theworld, in an amplified pandemic scenario in whichcontainment is assumed to take longer and which now seemsmore likely. The biggest negative shock is recorded in theoutput of domestic services affected by the pandemic, aswell as in traded tourist services. Since the model does notcapture fully the social isolation induced independentcontraction in demand and the decline in investorconfidence, the eventual economic impact may be different.This exercise is illustrative, because it is still too earlyto make an informed assessment of the full impact of thepandemic. But it does convey the likely extent of impendingglobal economic pain, especially for developing countriesand their potential need for assistance.