A semiparametric spatio-temporal model for solar irradiance data

RENEWABLE ENERGY

卷:87

Article

Patrick, Joshua D.¹  Harvill, Jane L.²  Hansen, Clifford W.³ 

[1] Univ Calif Davis, Dept Stat, Davis, CA 95616 USA

[2] Baylor Univ, Dept Stat Sci, Waco, TX 76798 USA

[3] Sandia Natl Labs, Albuquerque, NM 87185 USA

关键词: Irradiance;    Spatio-temporal model;    Nonseparability;    Lattice data;    Semiparametric time series;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.renene.2015.10.001

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

We evaluate semiparametric spatio-temporal models for global horizontal irradiance at high spatial and temporal resolution. These models represent the spatial domain as a lattice and are capable of predicting irradiance at lattice points, given data measured at other lattice points. Using data from a 1.2 MW PV plant located in Lanai, Hawaii, we show that a semiparametric model can be more accurate than simple interpolation between sensor locations. We investigate spatio-temporal models with separable and nonseparable covariance structures and find no evidence to support assuming a separable covariance structure. Our results indicate a promising approach for modeling irradiance at high spatial resolution consistent with available ground-based measurements. Such modeling may find application in design, valuation, and operation of fleets of utility-scale photovoltaic power systems. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

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