Predicting of elderly population structure and density by a novel grey fractional-order model with theta residual optimization: a case study of Shanghai City, China

BMC Geriatrics

Research

Yingjie Yang¹  Jiaxin Li²  Xiaojun Guo²  Xinyao Zhu²  Jingliang Jin² 

[1] Institute of Artificial Intelligence, De Montfort University, LE1 9BH, Leicester, UK;School of Science, Nantong University, 226019, Nantong, China;

关键词: Population aging;    Elderly population prediction;    Grey prediction model;    Fractional order accumulation;    Theta residual optimization;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12877-023-04197-2

 received in 2022-08-19, accepted in 2023-07-26,  发布年份 2023

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

Background Accurately predicting the future development trend of population aging is conducive to accelerating the development of the elderly care industry. This study constructed a combined optimization grey prediction model to predict the structure and density of elderly population.MethodsIn this paper, a GT-FGM model is proposed, which combines Theta residual optimization with fractional-order accumulation operator. Fractional-order accumulation can effectively weaken the randomness of the original data sequence. Meanwhile, Theta residual optimization can adjust parameter by minimizing the mean absolute error. And the population statistics of Shanghai city from 2006 to 2020 were selected for prediction analysis. By comparing with the other traditional grey prediction methods, three representative error indexes (MAE, MAPE, RMSE) were conducting for error analysis.ResultsCompared with the FGM model, GM (1,1) model, Verhulst model, Logistic model, SES and other classical prediction methods, the GT-FGM model shows significant forecasting advantages, and its multi-step rolling prediction accuracy is superior to other prediction methods. The results show that the elderly population density in nine districts in Shanghai will exceed 0.5 by 2030, among which Huangpu District has the highest elderly population density, reaching 0.6825. There has been a steady increase in the elderly population over the age of 60.ConclusionsThe GT-FGM model can improve the prediction accuracy effectively. The elderly population in Shanghai shows a steady growth trend on the whole, and the differences between districts are obvious. The government should build a modern pension industry system according to the aging degree of the population in each region, and promote the balanced development of each region.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© BioMed Central Ltd., part of Springer Nature 2023

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