Impact of population aging on trends in diabetes prevalence: A meta‐regression analysis of 160,000 Japanese adults

Journal of Diabetes Investigation

Hadrien Charvat⁶  Atsushi Goto⁴  Maki Goto⁴  Machiko Inoue²  Yoriko Heianza³  Yasuji Arase⁷  Hirohito Sone³  Tomoko Nakagami¹  Xin Song⁸  Qing Qiao⁸  Jaakko Tuomilehto⁵  Shoichiro Tsugane⁶  Mitsuhiko Noda⁴ 

[1] Diabetes Center, Tokyo Women's Medical University, Tokyo, Japan;General Medical Education Center, Teikyo University, Tokyo, Japan;Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Niigata University, Niigata, Japan;Department of Diabetes Research, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan;Department of Chronic Disease Prevention, National Institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland;Epidemiology and Prevention Group, Research Center for Cancer Prevention and Screening, National Cancer Center, Tokyo, Japan;Health Management Center, Toranomon Hospital, Tokyo, Japan;Department of Public Health, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland

关键词: Diabetes;    Population aging;    Prevalence;   

DOI  :  10.1111/jdi.12333

来源: Wiley

【 摘 要 】

Abstract

Aims/Introduction

To provide age- and sex-specific trends, age-standardized trends, and projections of diabetes prevalence through the year 2030 in the Japanese adult population.

Materials and Methods

In the present meta-regression analysis, we included 161,087 adults from six studies and nine national health surveys carried out between 1988 and 2011 in Japan. We assessed the prevalence of diabetes using a recorded history of diabetes or, for the population of individuals without known diabetes, either a glycated hemoglobin level of ≥6.5% (48 mmol/mol) or the 1999 World Health Organization criteria (i.e., a fasting plasma glucose level of ≥126 mg/dL and/or 2-h glucose level of ≥200 mg/dL in the 75-g oral glucose tolerance test).

Results

For both sexes, prevalence appeared to remain unchanged over the years in all age categories except for men aged 70 years or older, in whom a significant increase in prevalence with time was observed. Age-standardized diabetes prevalence estimates based on the Japanese population of the corresponding year showed marked increasing trends: diabetes prevalence was 6.1% among women (95% confidence interval [CI] 5.5–6.7), 9.9% (95% CI 9.2–10.6) among men, and 7.9% (95% CI 7.5–8.4) among the total population in 2010, and was expected to rise by 2030 to 6.7% (95% CI 5.2–9.2), 13.1% (95% CI 10.9–16.7) and 9.8% (95% CI 8.5–12.0), respectively. In contrast, the age-standardized diabetes prevalence using a fixed population appeared to remain unchanged.

Conclusions

This large-scale meta-regression analysis shows that a substantial increase in diabetes prevalence is expected in Japan during the next few decades, mainly as a result of the aging of the adult population.

【 授权许可】

CC BY-NC-ND   
© 2015 The Authors. Journal of Diabetes Investigation published by Asian Association of the Study of Diabetes (AASD) and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd

Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.