Risk Forecasting Technology During Construction Period of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Projects Based on Modified Grey Model

2nd International Symposium on Resource Exploration and Environmental Science

生态环境科学

Jiang, Yufeng^1,2,3,4 ; Zuo, Xiang^3,4 ; Hui, Erqing^5 ; Ding, Weng^3,4

Research Center on Levee Safety Disaster Prevention, MWR, Nanjing, China^1

Key Laboratory of Failure Mechanism and Safety Control Techniques of Earth-rock Dam, MWR, Nanjing, China^2

National Engineering Research Center of Water Resources Efficient Utilization and Engineering Safety, Hohai University, Nanjing, China^3

Nanjing Hohai Technology Co. LTD, Nanjing, China^4

China Three Gorges Corporation, Beijing, China^5

关键词: Construction period;    Forecasting modeling;    Grey prediction model;    Hydropower projects;    ITS applications;    Parameter functions;    Time varying parameter;    Water conservancy;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/170/4/042046/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/170/4/042046

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The risk forecasting and modeling during the construction period of water conservancy and hydropower projects are solved by including early warning of risk in the grey system problem. In order to mitigate the problem of modeling difficulties caused by short sequence and lack of information, change in the parameter function of the data sequence, mutation and discontinuity of the original monitoring data have been overcome. In addition, the traditional grey prediction model is upgraded to increases the focus on new interest so that the system change trend reflected by modified model is investigated profoundly. Similarly, modified model is built based on time-varying parameters that greatly enhanced the fitting and accuracy of the forecasting model. Its application realms prove that the method is effective and reasonable.