Epidemiological Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination: Mathematical Modeling Analyses

Vaccines

GhinaR. Mumtaz¹  Sarah Al-Omari¹  HousseinH. Ayoub²  Laith J. Abu-Raddad³  Hiam Chemaitelly³  Monia Makhoul³  Shaheen Seedat³ 

[1] Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, American University of Beirut, Beirut 11-0236, Lebanon;Department of Mathematics, Statistics, and Physics, Qatar University, Doha 2713, Qatar;Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation—Education City, Doha 24144, Qatar;

关键词: SARS-CoV-2;    COVID-19;    coronavirus;    epidemiology;    vaccine;    mathematical model;   

DOI  :  10.3390/vaccines8040668

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

This study aims to inform SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development/licensure/decision-making/implementation, using mathematical modeling, by determining key preferred vaccine product characteristics and associated population-level impacts of a vaccine eliciting long-term protection. A prophylactic vaccine with efficacy against acquisition (VE_S) ≥70% can eliminate the infection. A vaccine with VE_S <70% may still control the infection if it reduces infectiousness or infection duration among those vaccinated who acquire the infection, if it is supplemented with <20% reduction in contact rate, or if it is complemented with herd-immunity. At VE_S of 50%, the number of vaccinated persons needed to avert one infection is 2.4, and the number is 25.5 to avert one severe disease case, 33.2 to avert one critical disease case, and 65.1 to avert one death. The probability of a major outbreak is zero at VE_S ≥70% regardless of the number of virus introductions. However, an increase in social contact rate among those vaccinated (behavior compensation) can undermine vaccine impact. In addition to the reduction in infection acquisition, developers should assess the natural history and disease progression outcomes when evaluating vaccine impact.

【 授权许可】

Unknown