HIV Treatment as Prevention : Principles of Good HIV Epidemiology Modelling for Public Health Decision- Making in All Modes of Prevention and Evaluation

Delva, Wim ; Wilson, David P. ; Abu-Raddad, Laith ; Gorgens, Marelize ; Wilson, David

Public Library of Science

关键词: HIV prevention;    HIV;    epidemiology;    health evaluation;   

DOI  :  10.1371/journal.pmed.1001239
RP-ID  :  102457

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Public health responses to HIV epidemics have long relied on epidemiological modelling analyses to help prospectively project and retrospectively estimate the impact, cost-effectiveness, affordability, and investment returns of interventions, and to help plan the design of evaluations. But translating model output into policy decisions and implementation on the ground is challenged by the differences in background and expectations of modellers and decision-makers. As part of the PLoS Medicine Collection “Investigating the Impact of Treatment on New HIV Infections”—which focuses on the contribution of modelling to current issues in HIV prevention—we present here principles of “best practice” for the construction, reporting, and interpretation of HIV epidemiological models for public health decision-making on all aspects of HIV. Aimed at both those who conduct modelling research and those who use modelling results, we hope that the principles described here will become a shared resource that facilitates constructive discussions about the policy implications that emerge from HIV epidemiology modelling results, and that promotes joint understanding between modellers and decision-makers about when modelling is useful as a tool in quantifying HIV epidemiological outcomes and improving prevention programming.