Challenges in producing policy-relevant global scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services

Global Ecology and Conservation

Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer¹  Carlos A. Guerra²  Alexander Popp³  Andy Purvis³  Henrique M. Pereira³  Rob Alkemade⁴  Paul Leadley⁵  Aafke M. Schipper⁶  Simon Ferrier⁷  Isabel M.D. Rosa⁸  Inês S. Martins⁸  Detlef van Vuuren⁸  HyeJin Kim⁹  George Hurtt^1,10 

[1] Corresponding author. School of Natural Sciences, Bangor University, LL57 2DG, Bangor, UK.;Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Ascot, SL5 7PY, UK;German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5E, 04103, Leipzig, Germany;School of Natural Sciences, Bangor University, LL57 2DG, Bangor, UK;CSIRO Land and Water, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia;Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA;Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London, SW7 5BD, UK;Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Am Kirchtor 1, 06108, Halle (Saale), Germany;Natural Capital Project, Stanford University, 371 Serra Mall, Stanford, CA, USA;PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 30314, 2500 GH, The Hague, the Netherlands;

关键词: Biodiversity;    Ecosystem services;    Ensemble projections;    Models;    Scenarios;    Policy support;   

DOI  :  

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

Scenario-based modelling is a powerful tool to describe relationships between plausible trajectories of drivers, possible policy interventions, and impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Model inter-comparisons are key in quantifying uncertainties and identifying avenues for model improvement but have been missing among the global biodiversity and ecosystem services modelling communities. The biodiversity and ecosystem services scenario-based inter-model comparison (BES-SIM) aims to fill this gap. We used global land-use and climate projections to simulate possible future impacts on terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services using a variety of models and a range of harmonized metrics.The goal of this paper is to reflect on the steps taken in BES-SIM, identify remaining methodological challenges, and suggest pathways for improvement. We identified five major groups of challenges; the need to: 1) better account for the role of nature in future human development storylines; 2) improve the representation of drivers in the scenarios by increasing the resolution (temporal, spatial and thematic) of land-use as key driver of biodiversity change and including additional relevant drivers; 3) explicitly integrate species- and trait-level biodiversity in ecosystem services models; 4) expand the coverage of the multiple dimensions of biodiversity and ecosystem services; and finally, 5) incorporate time-series or one-off historical data in the calibration and validation of biodiversity and ecosystem services models.Addressing these challenges would allow the development of more integrated global projections of biodiversity and ecosystem services, thereby improving their policy relevance in supporting the interlinked international conservation and sustainable development agendas.

【 授权许可】

Unknown