Accounting for Russia's Post-Crisis Growth

Rudiger Ahrend

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

关键词: fiscal policy;    oil;    dutch disease;    real exchange rates;    natural resources;    gas;    resource curse;    monetary policy;    property rights;    Russia;    capital flight;    transition;    economic growth;    diversification;   

DOI  :  https://doi.org/10.1787/537250231174

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: OECD iLibrary

【 摘 要 】

This paper provides an in depth analysis of Russia’s recent growth, with a view to understanding the prospects for its continuation. It examines in detail the main drivers of growth, as well as the main developments and policies that have been underlying it. A key finding is that the role of the oil sector, and particularly privately owned oil companies, has been vastly more important in driving economic growth since 2001 than most analyses have recognised. The oil sector’s contribution to growth has hitherto been severely underestimated as official data do not account for transfer pricing and thus fail to reflect fully the importance of the hydrocarbon sector in the Russian economy. The paper further argues that prudent postcrisis fiscal policy, by balancing the federal budget over the oil-price cycle, has also been essential for creating a macroeconomic environment conducive to strong growth. Looking forward, it is argued that - given its economic structure - Russia is bound to ...