A Golden Rule for Russia? How a Rule-Based Fiscal Policy Can Allow a Smooth Adjustment to the New Terms of Trade

Christian Gianella

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

关键词: monetary policy;    dutch disease;    fiscal policy;    macroeconomic management;    Russia;   

DOI  :  https://doi.org/10.1787/328835227746

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: OECD iLibrary

【 摘 要 】

The Russian economy continues to grow strongly, buoyed by rising terms of trade, which, in turn, are supporting a boom in domestic consumption. This paper addresses the challenge that the adjustment to sustained high oil prices poses for macroeconomic management. It first examines the impact of rising terms of trade on the domestic economy, particularly with respect to exchange-rate appreciation, competitiveness and inflation. It then considers the role of monetary and fiscal policies in ensuring a smooth adjustment to the higher terms of trade. The paper argues that fiscal policy should be the primary instrument for tackling this challenge. It therefore focuses on the potential role of a fiscal rule in insulating the economy and the budget from commodity-price fluctuations, and on the management of windfall oil and gas revenues accumulated in the fiscal Stabilisation Fund.