Confronting the Food-Energy-Environment Trilemma : Global Land Use in the Long Run

Steinbuks, Jevgenijs ; Hertel, Thomas W.

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: AEROSOLS;    AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS;    AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT;    AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION;    AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6928
RP-ID  :  WPS6928

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Economic, agronomic, and biophysicaldrivers affect global land use, so all three influences needto be considered in evaluating economically optimalallocations of the world's land resources. A dynamic,forward-looking optimization framework applied over thecourse of the coming century shows that although somedeforestation is optimal in the near term, in the absence ofclimate change regulation, the desirability of furtherdeforestation is eliminated by mid-century. Although adverseproductivity shocks from climate change have a modest effecton global land use, such shocks combined with rapid growthin energy prices lead to significant deforestation andhigher greenhouse gas emissions than in the baseline.Imposition of a global greenhouse gas emissions constraintfurther heightens the competition for land, as fertilizeruse declines and land-based mitigation strategies expand.However, anticipation of the constraint largely dilutes itsenvironmental effectiveness, as deforestation acceleratesprior to imposition of the target.