What is the Social Value of Second-Generation Biofuels?

Hertel, Thomas W. ; Steinbuks, Jevgenijs ; Tyner, Wallace E.

World Bank Group, Washington, DC

关键词: ACCESS COSTS;    AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS;    AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT;    AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION;    AGRICULTURAL USES;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7142
RP-ID  :  WPS7142

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

What is second-generation biofueltechnology worth to global society? A dynamic, computablepartial equilibrium model (called FABLE) is used to assesschanges in global land use for crops, livestock, biofuels,forestry, and environmental services, as well as greenhousegas emissions, with and without second-generation biofuelstechnology. The difference in the discounted stream ofglobal valuations of land-based goods and services gives thevalue of second-generation technology to society. Underbaseline conditions, this to amounts to $64.2 billion attoday's population or an increase of roughly 0.3percent in the valuation of the world's land resources.This gain arises despite the fact that, in the baselinescenario, the technology does not become commercially viableuntil 2035. Alternative scenarios considered include:diminished crop yield growth owing to adverse climateimpacts, flat energy prices, low economic growth, and highpopulation growth, as well as greenhouse gas regulation. Themost important factor driving second-generation valuation isgreenhouse gas regulation, which more than doubles thesocial value of this technology. Flat energy pricesessentially eliminate the value of second-generationtechnology to society, and high population growth reducesits value because of the heightened competition for land forfood production.