A Poverty Analysis MacroeconomicSimulator (PAMS) Linking Household Surveys with Macro-Models

Pereira da Silva, Luiz A. ; Essama-Nssah, B. ; Samake, Issouf

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: POVERTY ANALYSIS;    MACROECONOMIC MODELS;    HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS;    MACROECONOMIC POLICY;    POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGIES;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-2888
RP-ID  :  WPS2888

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The Poverty Analysis MacroeconomicSimulator (PAMS) is a model that links standard householdsurveys with macro frameworks. It allows users to assess theeffect of macroeconomic policies-in particular, thoseassociated with Poverty Reduction Strategies papers-onsectoral employment and income, the incidence of poverty,and income distribution. PAMS (in Excel) has threeinterconnected components: (1) A standard aggregatemacro-framework that can be taken from any macro-consistencymodel (for example, RMSM-X, 123) to project GDP, nationalaccounts, the national budget, the BoP, price levels, and soon, in aggregate consistent accounts. (2) A labor market modelbreaking down labor categories by skill level and economicsectors whose production total is consistent with that ofthe macro framework. Individuals from the household surveysare grouped in representative groups of households definedby the labor category of the head of the household. For eachlabor category, labor demand depends on sectoral output andreal wages. Wage income levels by economic sector and laborcategory can thus be determined. In addition, differentincome tax rates and different levels of budgetary transfersacross labor categories can be added to wage income. (3) Amodel that uses the labor model results for each laborcategory to simulate the income growth for each individualinside its own group, assumed to be the average of itsgroup. After projecting individual incomes, PAMScalculates the incidence of poverty and the inter-groupinequality. PAMS can produce historical or counterfactualsimulations of: + Alternative growth scenarios withdifferent assumptions for inflation, fiscal, and currentaccount balances. These simulations allow test tradeoffswithin a macro stabilization program. + Differentcombinations of sectoral growth (agricultural or industrial,tradable or non-tradable goods sectors), within a givenaggregate GDP growth rate. + Tax and budgetary transferpolicies. For example, PAMS will simulate a baselinemacro-scenario for Burkina Faso corresponding to an existingIMF/World Bank-supported program and introduce changes intax, fiscal, and sectoral growth policies to reduce povertyand inequality more effectively than the base scenario. So,the authors argue that there are several possible"equilibria" in terms of poverty and inequalitywithin the same macro framework.