The Epidemiological Impact of an HIV Vaccine on the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Southern India

Nagelkerke, Nico J.D. ; De Vlas, Sake J.

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ADULT MEN;    ADULT POPULATION;    ADULT PREVALENCE;    AIDS PATIENTS;    AIDS VACCINE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-2978
RP-ID  :  WPS2978

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The potential epidemiological impact ofpreventive HIV vaccines on the HIV epidemic in SouthernIndia is examined using a mathematical deterministic dynamiccompartmental model. Various assumptions about the degree ofprotection offered by such a vaccine, the extent ofimmunological response of those vaccinated, and the durationof protection afforded are explored. Alternative targetingstrategies for HIV vaccination are simulated and comparedwith the impact of conventional prevention interventions inhigh-risk groups and the general population. The impact ofdisinhibition (increased risk behavior due to the presenceof a vaccine) is also considered. Vaccines that convey ahigh degree of protection in a share of or all of thoseimmunized and that convey life-long immunity are the mosteffective in curbing the HIV epidemic. Vaccines that conveyless than complete protection may also have substantialpublic health impact, but disinhibition can easily undotheir effects and they should be used combined withconventional prevention efforts. Conventional interventionsthat target commercial sex workers and their clients toincrease condom use can also be highly effective and can beimplemented immediately, before the arrival of vaccines.