Demand for Imports in Venezuela :A Structural Time Series Approach

Cuevas, Mario A.

World Bank, Washington, D.C.

关键词: IMPORT DEMAND;    STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS;    STOCHASTIC MODELS CD;    CENTRAL BANK;    COAL;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-2825
RP-ID  :  WPS2825

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Using structural time series models,Cuevas estimates common stochastic trends of real GDP andimports in Venezuela from 1974-2000. The real imports trenddrifts upward at almost twice the rate of growth of GDP.This highlights the powerful structural tendency towardincreasing imports in Venezuela. The author also explicitlyestimates common stochastic cycles, which he finds to have 5and 17 year periods. In addition, he finds that a 1 percentreal exchange rate appreciation leads to a 0.4 percentincrease in imports. And in the long-run, 1 percent real GDPgrowth is associated with 1.7 percent real imports growth.The author also shows that the GDP elasticity of importsuniformly falls with cycle period, with the elasticityreaching 4.55 at the frequency associated with the 5-yearcycle. A powerful imports responsiveness at the higher cyclefrequency is associated with the recurrence of externalimbalances in Venezuela.