What Drives Private Saving around the World?

Loayza, Norman ; Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus ; Serven, Luis

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ANNUAL OBSERVATIONS;    AVERAGE PROCESS;    CAPITAL ACCUMULATION;    CAPITAL GAINS;    CENTRAL BANK;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-2309
RP-ID  :  WPS2309

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The authors investigate the policy andnon-policy factors behind saving disparities, using a largepanel data set and an encompassing approach includingseveral relevant determinants of private saving. They extendthe literature in several dimensions, by: 1) Using thelargest data set on aggregate saving assembled to date. 2)Using panel instrumental variable techniques to correct forendogeneity and heterogeneity. 3) Performing robustnesschecks on changes in estimation procedures, data samples,and model specification. Their main empirical findings: a)Private saving rates show considerable inertia (are highlyserially correlated even after controlling for otherrelevant factors). b) Private sector rates rise with thelevel and growth rate of real per capita income. So policiesthat spur development are in indirect but effective way toraise private saving rates. c) Predictions of the life-cyclehypothesis are supported in that dependency ratios generallyhave a negative effect on private saving rates. d) Theprecautionary motive for saving is supported by the findingthat inflation - conventionally taken as a summary measureof macroeconomic volatility - has a positive impact onprivate saving, holding other facts constant. e) Fiscalpolicy is a moderately effective tool for raising nationalsaving. F) the direct effect of financial liberalization arelargely detrimental to private saving rates. Greateravailability of credit reduces the private saving rate;financial depth and higher real interest rates do notincrease saving.