Goals for Development : History,Prospects, and Costs

Devarajan, Shantayanan ; Miller, Margaret J. ; Swanson, Eric V.

World Bank, Washington, D.C.

关键词: AGED;    AGGREGATE SPENDING;    AGRICULTURE;    ANNUAL RATE;    ASIA & PACIFIC;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-2819
RP-ID  :  WPS2819

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The Millennium Development Goals setquantitative targets for poverty reduction and improvementsin health, education, gender equality, the environment, andother aspects of human welfare. At existing rates ofprogress many countries will fall short of these goals.However, if developing countries take steps to improve theirpolicies and increased financial resources are madeavailable, significant additional progress toward the goalsis possible. The suthors provide a preliminary estimate ofthe additional financial resources which would be requiredif countries would work vigorously toward meeting theMillennium Development Goals. Two estimates of the resourcegap are developed, one by estimating the additionalresources necessary to increase economic growth so as toreduce income poverty, the other by estimating the cost ofmeeting specific goals in health, education, and theenvironment. Both estimates yield a figure in the range of$40-$70 billion in additional assistance per year, which isin line with estimates from other international developmentagencies and which would roughly represent a doubling ofofficial aid flows over 2000 levels. While the authorsbelieve this is a reasonable first approximation of thecosts associated with achieving the Millennium DevelopmentGoals, it should be interpreted with caution for severalreasons, including the lack of empirical data in manycountries to estimate the relationship between expenditureson health or education and related outcomes, or therelationship between investment and growth, the sensitivityof the results to changes in the policy environment (both atthe macroeconomic and sector level, and with respect tointernational trade), and opportunities for increased-andmore efficient-domestic resource mobilization.