Inside the Crisis : An Empirical Analysis of Banking Systems in Distress

Demirguc-Kunt, Asli ; Detragiache, Enrica ; Gupta, Poonam

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ASSET MANAGEMENT;    ASSET PRICES;    BAILOUT COSTS;    BANK ASSETS;    BANK CAPITAL;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-2431
RP-ID  :  WPS2431

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Much of the substantial literature onbanking crises, focuses on early warning indicators. Theauthors look at what happens to the economy, and the bankingsector after a banking crisis breaks out. Much of the theoryof banking crises assigns a central role to depositor runs,with vulnerability to runs viewed as a basic characteristicof banks as financial intermediaries. But banking systemscan be financially distressed, even when depositors do notwithdraw their deposits, if other bank creditors rush forthe exit, or if banks become insolvent. Are contemporarybanking crises characterized by large declines in deposits?The authors find that contemporary banking crises are notaccompanied by declines in aggregate bank deposits, andcredit does not fall relative to output, but the growth ofboth deposits, and credit does slow down substantially.Output recovery begins the second year after the crisis, andis not led by a resumption of credit growth. Instead, banks(including the stronger banks) reallocate their assetportfolio away from loans. This suggests that protectingdeposits during a banking crisis, may not be enough toprotect bank credit, as lack of usable collateral, and poorborrower creditworthiness, discourage banks from lending.However, protecting bank credit may not be a priority rightafter a crisis, as the real economy can rebound without it,at least while there is substantial under-used capacity.