The Effect of International Monetary Fund and World Bank Programs on Poverty

Easterly, William

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ABSOLUTE VALUE;    ADJUSTMENT LENDING;    ADJUSTMENT LOANS;    ADJUSTMENT PROGRAMMES;    AGGREGATE OUTPUT;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-2517
RP-ID  :  WPS2517

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Structural adjustment - as measured bythe number of adjustment loans from the IMF, and the WorldBank - reduces the growth elasticity of poverty reduction.The author finds no evidence for structural adjustmenthaving a direct effect on growth. The poor benefit less fromoutput expansion in countries with many adjustment loans,than they do in countries with few such loans. By the sametoken, the poor suffer less from an output contraction incountries with many adjustment loans, than in countries withfew. Why would this be? One hypothesis is that adjustmentlending is counter-cyclical, in ways that smooth consumptionfor the poor. There is evidence that some policy variablesunder adjustment lending are counter-cyclical, but noevidence that the cyclical component of those policyvariables affects poverty. The author speculates that thepoor may be ill placed to take advantage of newopportunities, created by structural adjustment reforms,just as they may suffer less from the loss of oldopportunities in sectors that were artificially protectedbefore reform. Poverty's lower sensitivity to growthunder adjustment lending, is bad news when an economyexpands, and good news when it contracts. These resultscould be interpreted as giving support to either thecritics, or the supporters of structural adjustment programs.