Algorithms for Purchasing AIDS Vaccines

Bishai, David ; Lin, Maria K. ; Kiyonga, C.W.B.

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ADAPTATION;    ADULT MEN;    ADVERSE EFFECTS;    AGED;    AIDS CARE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-2321
RP-ID  :  WPS2321

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The authors delineate two differentalgorithms for the purchase of AIDS vaccines, to show howdifferences in policy objectives can greatly affectprojections of the number of courses of vaccine that will beneeded. They consider a hypothetical vaccine costing tendollars to produce, and offering sixty percent, seventy fivepercent, and ninety percent reductions in the risk of HIVfor ten years. For each of the world's ten majorgeographic divisions, they sue published estimates of therisk of AIDS, the value of medical costs averted, and thevalue of potential productivity losses. Under the"health sector" algorithm - in which purchases aremade to minimize the impact of AIDS/HIV on government healthspending - 766 million courses of vaccine would bepurchased. Under the "societal" algorithm - inwhich purchases are made to minimize the impact of AIDS/HIVon health spending and GDP - more than 3.7 billion coursesof vaccine would be purchased. Under an "equity"model - allocating vaccines to everyone in the world at highrisk, as if they had the financial resources of WesternEuropeans - vaccine would be offered to 4.7 billion people.For a Western European man, reducing the risk of AIDS/HIVwould be a $789 concern; in Africa, the comparable riskwould be a $48,577 crisis. The authors conclude thatfinancing AIDS vaccines solely on the fixed budget of aministry of health, means large vulnerable populationswouldn't receive the vaccine. Allocating the vaccinebased on society's ability to pay would still excludemany poor infants who would probably be immunized if theywere born in more developed regions. Policymakers concernedabout equity in health care must redouble efforts to makingthe financing of development, and distribution of AIDSvaccines, a global, not a regional concern.