Intra-generational Mobility and Repeated Cross-Sections : A Three-country Validation Exercise

Cruces, Guillermo ; Lanjouw, Peter ; Lucchetti, Leonardo ; Perova, Elizaveta ; Vakis, Renos ; Viollaz, Mariana

关键词: DATA ANALYSIS;    ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT;    FEMALE;    GENDER;    HOUSEHOLD INCOME;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-5916
RP-ID  :  WPS5916

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper validates a recently proposedmethod to estimate intra-generational mobility throughrepeated cross-sectional surveys. The technique allows thecreation of a "synthetic panel" -- done bypredicting future or past household income using a set ofsimple modeling and error structure assumptions -- and thuspermits the estimation of lower and upper bounds ondirectional mobility measures. The authors validate theapproach in three different settings where good panel dataalso exist (Chile, Nicaragua, and Peru). In doing so, theyalso carry out a number of refinements to the validationprocedure. The results are broadly encouraging: themethodology performs well in all three settings, especiallyin cases where richer model specifications can be estimated.The technique does equally well in predicting short andlong-term mobility patterns and is robust to a broad set ofadditional "stress" and sensitivity tests.Overall, the paper lends support to the application of thisapproach to settings where panel data are absent.