A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Latin American Farms

Seo, Niggol ; Mendelsohn, Robert

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION;    AGRICULTURE;    BARLEY;    BASIL;    CACAO;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4163
RP-ID  :  WPS4163

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This study estimates the vulnerabilityof Latin American agriculture to climate change using aRicardian analysis of both land values and net revenues.Examining a sample of over 2,500 farms in seven countries,the results indicate both land value and net revenue aresensitive to climate. Both small farms and large farms havea hill-shaped relationship with temperature. Estimatingseparate regressions for dryland and irrigated farms revealsthat dryland farms are more sensitive to temperature butirrigated farms are more sensitive to precipitation.Examining the effects from future climate change scenariosreveals that severe scenarios could reduce farm earnings byas much as 62 percent by 2100, whereas more moderatescenarios could reduce earnings by about 15 percent. Smalland large farms are equally sensitive to global warming.Land value and net revenue analyses produce quite similar results.