Climate Change, Irrigation, and Israeli Agriculture : Will Warming Be Harmful?

Fleischer, Aliza ; Lichtman, Ivgenia ; Mendelsohn, Robert

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ACCESS TO MARKETS;    AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS;    AGRICULTURAL LAND;    AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION;    AGRICULTURE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4135
RP-ID  :  WPS4135

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The authors use a Ricardian model totest the relationship between annual net revenues andclimate across Israeli farms. They find that it is importantto include the amount of irrigation water available to eachfarm in order to measure the response of farms to climate.With irrigation water omitted, the model predicts thatclimate change is strictly beneficial. But with waterincluded, the model predicts that only modest climatechanges are beneficial, while drastic climate change in thelong run will be harmful. Using the Atmospheric OceanicGlobal Circulation Models scenarios, the authors show thatfarm net revenue is expected to increase by 16 percent in2020, while in 2100 farm net revenue is expected to drop by60-390 percent varying between the different scenarios.Although Israel has a relatively warm climate, a mildincrease in temperature is beneficial due to the ability tosupply international markets with farm products early in theseason. The findings lead to the conclusion that securingwater rights to the farmers and international tradeagreements can be important policy measures to help farmersadapt to climate change.