Estimating Quarterly Poverty Rates Using Labor Force Surveys : A Primer

Douidich, Mohamed ; Ezzrari, Abdeljaouad ; Van der Weide, Roy ; Verme, Paolo

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ACCESS TO SERVICES;    AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT;    AGRICULTURAL PERFORMANCE;    AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION;    AGRICULTURAL SECTOR;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6466
RP-ID  :  WPS6466

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The paper shows how Labor Force Surveyscan be used effectively to estimate poverty rates usingHousehold Expenditure Surveys and cross-survey imputationmethods. With only two rounds of Household ExpenditureSurvey data for Morocco (2001 and 2007), the paper estimatesquarterly poverty rates for the period 2001-2010 by imputinghousehold expenditures into the Labor Force Surveys. Theresults are encouraging. The methodology is able toaccurately reproduce official poverty statistics bycombining current Labor Force Surveys with previous periodHousehold Expenditure Surveys, and vice versa. Although thefocus is on head-count poverty, the method can be applied toany welfare indicator that is a function of household incomeor expenditure, such as the poverty gap or the Gini index ofinequality. The newly produced time-series of poverty ratescan help researchers and policy makers to: (a) study thedeterminants of poverty reduction or use poverty as anexplanatory factor in cross-section and panel models; (b)forecast poverty rates based on a time-series model fittedto the data; and (c) explore the linkages between labormarket conditions and poverty and simulate the effects ofpolicy reforms or economic shocks. This is a promisingresearch agenda that can expand significantly the tool-kitof the welfare economist.