Integrating Seasonal Forecasts and Insurance for Adaptation among Subsistence Farmers : The Case of Malawi

Osgood, Daniel E. ; Suarez, Pablo ; Hansen, James ; Carriquiry, Miguel ; Mishra, Ashok

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ACCESS TO INFORMATION;    AGRICULTURAL INPUTS;    AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT;    AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION;    AGRICULTURAL SECTOR;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4651
RP-ID  :  WPS4651

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Climate variability poses a severethreat to subsistence farmers in southern Africa. Twodifferent approaches have emerged in recent years to addressthese threats: the use of seasonal precipitation forecastsfor risk reduction (for example, choosing seed varietiesthat can perform well for expected rainfall conditions), andthe use of innovative financial instruments for risk sharing(for example, index-based weather insurance bundled tomicrocredit for agricultural inputs). So far these twoapproaches have remained entirely separated. This paperexplores the integration of seasonal forecasts into anongoing pilot insurance scheme for smallholder farmers inMalawi. The authors propose a model that adjusts the amountof high-yield agricultural inputs given to farmers tofavorable or unfavorable rainfall conditions expected forthe season. Simulation results - combining climatic,agricultural, and financial models - indicate that thisapproach substantially increases production in La Niña years(when droughts are very unlikely for the study area), andreduces losses in El Niño years (when insufficient rainfalloften damages crops). Cumulative gross revenues are morethan twice as large for the proposed scheme, given modelingassumptions. The resulting accumulation of wealth can reducelong-term vulnerability to drought for participatingfarmers. Conclusions highlight the potential of thisapproach for adaptation to climate variability and change insouthern Africa.