Assessment of the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Zimbabwe : A Ricardian Approach

Mano, Reneth ; Nhemachena, Charles

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES;    AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT;    AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS;    AGRICULTURAL LAND;    AGRICULTURAL POLICY;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4292
RP-ID  :  WPS4292

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This study uses the Ricardian approachto examine the economic impact of climate change onagriculture in Zimbabwe. Net farm revenue is regressedagainst various climate, soil, hydrological andsocio-economic variables to help determine the factors thatinfluence variability in net farm revenues. The study isbased on data from a survey of 700 smallholder farminghouseholds interviewed across the country. The empiricalresults show that climatic variables (temperature andprecipitation) have significant effects on net farm revenuesin Zimbabwe. In addition to the analysis of all farms, thestudy also analyzes the effects on dryland farms and farmswith irrigation. The analysis indicates that net farmrevenues are affected negatively by increases in temperatureand positively by increases in precipitation. The resultsfrom sensitivity analysis suggest that agriculturalproduction in Zimbabwe's smallholder farming system issignificantly constrained by climatic factors (hightemperature and low rainfall). The elasticity results showthat the changes in net revenue are high for dryland farmingcompared to farms with irrigation. The results show thatfarms with irrigation are more resistant to changes inclimate, indicating that irrigation is an importantadaptation option to help reduce the impact of furtherchanges in climate. An overview of farmer adaptation tochanging climate indicates that farmers are already usingsome adaptation strategies-such as dry and early planting,growing drought resistant crops, changing planting dates,and using irrigation-to cushion themselves against furtheranticipated adverse climatic conditions. An important policymessage from the empirical findings is that there is a needto provide adequate extension information services to ensurethat farmers receive up-to-date information about rainfallpatterns in the forthcoming season so that they makewell-informed decisions on their planting dates. Policiesthat increase farmer training and access to credit and aidfacilities and help farmers acquire livestock and otherimportant farm assets can help improve net farm performance.Ensuring the availability and accessibility of fertilizersand crop seeds before the onset of the next cropping seasoncan also significantly improve net farm performance across households.