Short- and Long-Run Impacts of Food Price Changes on Poverty

Ivanic, Maros ; Martin, Will

World Bank Group, Washington, DC

关键词: ADVERSE IMPACTS;    AGGREGATE POVERTY;    AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES;    AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS;    AGRICULTURAL LAND;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7011
RP-ID  :  WPS7011

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This study uses household models basedon detailed expenditure and agricultural production datafrom 31 developing countries to assess the impacts ofchanges in global food prices on poverty in individualcountries and for the world as a whole. The analysis findsthat food price increases unrelated to productivity changesin developing countries raise poverty in the short run inall but a few countries with broadly-distributedagricultural resources. This result is primarily because thepoor spend large shares of their incomes on food and manypoor farmers are net buyers of food. In the longer run, twoother important factors come into play: poor workers arelikely to benefit from increases in wage rates for unskilledworkers from higher food prices, and poor farmers are likelyto benefit from higher agricultural profits as they raisetheir output. As a result, higher food prices appear tolower global poverty in the long run.