The Short-Term Impact of Higher Food Prices on Poverty in Uganda

Simler, Kenneth R.

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ABSOLUTE POVERTY;    AGGREGATE POVERTY;    AGGREGATE POVERTY DEFICIT;    AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS;    AGRICULTURAL LABORERS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-5210
RP-ID  :  WPS5210

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

World prices for staple foods increasedbetween 2006 and 2008, and accelerated sharply in 2008.Initial analysis indicated that the adverse effects ofhigher food prices in Uganda were likely to be small becauseof the diversity of its staple foods, high level of foodself-sufficiency, and weak links with world markets. Thispaper extends the previous analyses, disaggregating byregions and individual food items, using more recent pricedata, and estimating the impact on consumption poverty. Theanalysis finds that poor households in Uganda tend to be netbuyers of food staples, and therefore suffer welfare losseswhen food prices increase. This is most pronounced in urbanareas, but holds true for most rural households as well. Thediversity of staple foods has not been an effective bufferbecause of price increases across a range of staple foods.The paper estimates that both the incidence and depth ofpoverty have increased -- at least in the short run -- as aresult of higher food prices in 2008, increasing by 2.6 and2.2 percentage points, respectively. The increase in povertyis highest in the Northern region, which is already thepoorest in Uganda. The need for mitigating social protectionmeasures appears to be greater than previously recognized.Not only are the negative impacts larger, but they are alsomuch more widespread geographically. This suggests the needfor continued close monitoring of the situation, includingmonitoring the adequacy of existing safety nets and feeding programs.