Food Security and Storage in theMiddle East and North Africa

Larson, Donald F. ; Lampietti, Julian ; Gouel, Christophe ; Cafiero, Carlo ; Roberts, John

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS;    AGRICULTURE;    ARBITRAGE;    AVERAGE COSTS;    AVERAGE PRICE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6031
RP-ID  :  WPS6031

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

In times of highly volatile commoditymarkets, governments often try to protect their populationsfrom rapidly-rising food prices, which can be particularlyharsh for the poor. A potential solution for food-deficitcountries is to hold strategic reserves, which can be calledon when international prices spike. But how large shouldstrategic stockpiles be? This paper develops a dynamicstorage model for wheat in the Middle East and North Africa(MENA) region, where imported wheat dominates the averagediet. The paper uses the model to analyze a strategy thatsets aside wheat stockpiles, which can be used when neededto keep domestic prices below a targeted price. This papershows that if the target is set high and reserves areadequate, the strategy can be effective and robust. Contraryto most interventions, strategic storage policies arecounter-cyclical and, when the importing region issufficiently large, a regional policy can smooth globalprices. This paper shows that this is the case for the MENAregion. Nevertheless, the policy is more costly than thepro-cyclical policy of a targeted intervention that directlyoffsets high prices with a subsidy similar to food stamps.