The End of Seasonality? New Insights from Sub-Saharan Africa

Kaminski, Jonathan ; Christiaensen, Luc ; Gilbert, Christopher L.

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS;    AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION;    AGRICULTURE;    ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE;    ARBITRAGE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6907
RP-ID  :  WPS6907

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper revisits the extent ofseasonality in African livelihoods, which has disappearedfrom Africa's development debate. Through econometricanalysis of monthly food price series across 100 locationsin three countries during 2000-12, it is shown that seasonalmovements in maize wholesale prices explain 20 (Tanzania,Uganda) to 40 (Malawi) percent of their monthly volatility.Monthly maize peak prices are on average 30 (Tanzania,Uganda) to 50 (Malawi) percent higher than their monthlytroughs and two to three times higher than the seasonal gapsobserved for white maize at the South African FuturesExchange. Furthermore, household food consumption is foundto inversely track food prices in each country, decreasingwhen staple prices increase and increasing when theydecline. Clearly, (excess) seasonality in African foodmarkets and consumption persists, necessitating policy attention.