Global Growth and Distribution : Are China and India Reshaping the World?

Bussolo, Maurizio ; De Hoyos, Rafael E. ; Medvedev, Denis ; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ACCELERATOR;    ACCOUNTING;    AGGREGATE GROWTH;    AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT;    AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4392
RP-ID  :  WPS4392

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Over the past 20 years, aggregatemeasures of global inequality have changed little even ifsignificant structural changes have been observed. Highgrowth rates of China and India lifted millions out ofpoverty, while the stagnation in many African countriescaused them to fall behind. Using the World Bank'sLINKAGE global general equilibrium model and the newlydeveloped Global Income Distribution Dynamics (GIDD) tool,this paper assesses the distribution and poverty effects ofa scenario where these trends continue in the future. Evenby anticipating a deceleration, growth in China and India isa key force behind the expected convergence of per-capitaincomes at the global level. Millions of Chinese and Indianconsumers will enter into a rapidly emerging global middleclass-a group of people who can afford, and demand accessto, the standards of living previously reserved mainly forthe residents of developed countries. Notwithstanding thesepositive developments, fast growth is often characterized byhigh urbanization and growing demand for skills, both ofwhich result in widening of income distribution withincountries. These opposing distributional effects highlightthe importance of analyzing global disparities by takinginto account - as the GIDD does - income dynamics betweenand within countries.