科技报告详细信息
The Long-Awaited Rise of the Middle Class in Latin America Is Finally Happening
Bussolo, Maurizio ; Maliszewska, Maryla ; Murard, Elie
World Bank, Washington, DC
关键词: ABSOLUTE DIFFERENCE;    ABSOLUTE TERMS;    ABSOLUTE VALUE;    AGGREGATE GROWTH;    AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT;   
DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6912
RP-ID  :  WPS6912
学科分类:社会科学、人文和艺术(综合)
来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository
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【 摘 要 】

In many developing countries, the supplyof skilled workers is likely to continue to be stronger thandemand, and this should drive down the skill premium andreduce inequality. Within the limitations of any exercisebased on simulations, this paper finds that the recentlyobserved reduction in inequality in Latin America maycontinue. Building on counterfactual scenarios projectingeconomic and demographic (including age and education)growth, the paper also highlights that by 2030 thelong-awaited rise of the middle class in Latin America willbe in full swing, as its share will be 43 percent of thetotal population, twice the value in 2005. This achievementis not guaranteed, as countries with large initialinequalities will have to achieve very high rates ofinclusive growth. At the same time, a larger middle class islikely to exert a stronger influence on international anddomestic policy making.

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