Can the Distributional Impacts ofMacroeconomic Shocks be Predicted? A Comparison of thePerformance of Macro-Micro Models with Historical Data for Brazil

Ferreira, Francisco H.G. ; Leite, Phillippe George ; Pereira da Silva, Luiz A. ; Picchetti, Paulo

World Bank, Washington, D.C.

关键词: ACCELERATOR;    AGGREGATE DEMAND;    AGGREGATE GROWTH;    AGGREGATE SUPPLY;    AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-3303
RP-ID  :  WPS3303

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

What was the impact of Brazil's1998-99 currency crisis-which resulted in a change ofexchange rate regime and a large real devaluation-on theoccupational structure of the labor force and thedistribution of incomes? Would it have been possible topredict such effects ahead of the crisis? The authorspresent an integrated macro-micro model of the Brazilianeconomy in 1998. The model consists of an applied generalequilibrium macroeconometric component, connected through aset of linkage aggregate variables to a microeconomic modelof household incomes. The authors use this framework topredict the employment and distributional consequences ofthe 1999 Brazilian currency crisis, based on 1998 householdsurvey data. They then test the predictive performance ofthe model by comparing its simulated results with the actualhousehold survey data observed in 1999. In addition to thefully integrated macro-micro model, the authors also testthe performances of the microeconometric model on its own,and of a "representative household groups"approach. They find that the integrated macro-microeconometric model, while still inaccurate on manydimensions, can actually predict the broad pattern of theincidence of changes in household incomes across thedistribution reasonably well, and much better than thealternative approaches. The authors conclude that furtherexperimentation with these tools might be of considerablepotential usefulness to policymakers.