Does It Matter Who You Sign With? Comparing the Impacts of North-South and South-South Trade Agreements on Bilateral Trade | |
Behar, Alberto ; Cirera i Criville, Laia | |
关键词: ABSOLUTE VALUE; AGGREGATE TRADE; AGRICULTURE; BARRIERS TO IMPORTS; BILATERAL TRADE; | |
DOI : 10.1596/1813-9450-5626 RP-ID : WPS5626 |
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学科分类:社会科学、人文和艺术(综合) | |
来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository | |
【 摘 要 】
Free trade agreements lead to a rise inbilateral trade regardless of whether the signatories aredeveloped or developing countries. Furthermore, thepercentage increase in bilateral trade is higher forSouth-South agreements than for North-South agreements. Inthis paper, the results are robust across a number ofgravity model specifications in which the analysis controlsfor the endogeneity of free trade agreements (with bilateralfixed effects) and also takes account of multilateralresistance in both estimation (with country-time fixedeffects) and comparative statics (analytically). Theanalytical model shows that multilateral resistance dampensthe impact of free trade agreements on trade by less inSouth-South agreements than in North-South agreements, whichaccentuates the difference implied by the gravity modelcoefficients, and that this difference gets larger as thenumber of signatories rises. For example, allowing for lagsand multilateral resistance, a four-country North-Southagreement raises bilateral trade by 53 percent while theanalogous South-South impact is 107 percent.
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