The Growth of China and India in World Trade : Opportunity or Threat for Latin America and the Caribbean?

Lederman, Daniel ; Olarreaga, Marcelo ; Soloaga, Isidro

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ABSOLUTE VALUE;    AGGREGATE TRADE;    AGRICULTURE;    BILATERAL IMPORTS;    BILATERAL TRADE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4320
RP-ID  :  WPS4320

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper studies the relationshipbetween the growth of China and India in world merchandisetrade and Latin American and Caribbean commercial flows fromtwo perspectives. First, the authors focus on theopportunity that China and India's markets have offeredLatin American and Caribbean exporters during 2000-2004.Second, empirical analyses examine the partial correlationbetween Chinese and Indian bilateral trade flows and LatinAmerican and Caribbean trade with third markets. Bothanalyses rely on the gravity model of international trade.Econometric estimations that control for the systematiccorrelation between expected bilateral trade volumes and thesize of their regression errors, as well as importer andexporter fixed effects and year effects, provide consistentestimates of the relevant parameters for different groups ofcountries in Latin America and the Caribbean. Resultssuggest that the growth of the two Asian markets hasproduced large opportunities for Latin American andCaribbean exporters, which nevertheless have not been fullyexploited. The evidence concerning the effects of Chineseand Indian trade with third markets is not robust, but thereis little evidence of negative effects on Latin American andCaribbean exports of non-fuel merchandise. In general,China's and to a large extent India's growingpresence in world trade has been good news for Latin Americaand the Caribbean, but some of the potential benefits remain unexploited.